Predicted grades
How are predicted grades decided?
A subject teacher makes the prediction from the available evidence of your work and their knowledge of programme standards. The public guidance does not publish one weighted formula that every school must use, so a prediction should not be reverse-engineered as if it were a universal average.
Official guidance checked September 28, 2026
What the public guidance establishes
| Question | Public guidance | Limit |
|---|---|---|
| Who produces it? | The subject teacher produces the prediction. | It is not generated by a universal International Baccalaureate formula or by iBacalao. |
| What is it based on? | The teacher uses the available evidence of the student's work together with their knowledge of programme standards. | The public definition does not prescribe a single weighted-average calculation that every school must use. |
| Where else is it required? | Predicted grades are also required for theory of knowledge and the extended essay. | A predicted grade remains a prediction, not a confirmed final result or a grade boundary. |
| How is accuracy treated? | The official guidance says predictions should be as accurate as possible and not systematically under- or over-predict performance. | The organization says it works with schools that consistently under- or over-predict; this is not a promise that an individual prediction will match the final grade. |
Before you rely on the number
- 01Ask what evidence your school is using. The public definition says the teacher uses evidence of your work, but it does not prescribe one universal weighting for assignments, mocks or classwork.
- 02Ask which prediction you are looking at. If the number appears in a report, portal or university process, confirm what that school-specific number is being used for instead of assuming every displayed prediction has the same role.
- 03Ask when it can change. Update timing is a school process. The public source defines the prediction, not a universal calendar for when every school recalculates it.
Sources & verification
Primary-source references used to verify key assessment facts on this page. Last source check: September 28, 2026.
This page intentionally stops at the public evidence. School-specific prediction procedures can differ and should be checked with the school.
- International Baccalaureate: student assessment for university admissionsOfficial definition of predicted grades and the expectation that schools avoid systematic under- or over-prediction.